巴克莱：美元受提振 现货黄金走势承压
关键字：现货黄金走势
普氏能源信息（Platts）报导，巴克莱银行（Barclays）分析师库柏（Suki Cooper）1月6日报告指出，2014年金价表现仍将承压，主要因为经济改善降低美国财政的不确定性，可望推升美元兑欧元汇价的影响。该行预计2014年平均金价将为每盎司1,310美元，低于去年平均的1,412美元，但将高于6日伦敦金午盘定盘价的每盎司1,246.5美元。
库柏表示，联储局12月宣布将缩减量化宽松的每月购债规模100亿美元，落实了市场的预期，也令该行的外汇分析师深信2014年将会是美元有所表现的一年，预期欧元兑美元将自目前约1.36美元的价位下跌至2014年底的1.27美元。此外，美债的殖利率攀高同样将对金价构成压力，该行预计10年债殖利率今年中将达3%，至年底可达3.5%。巴克莱认为，去年造成金价重挫的主因之一–黄金ETP（交易所交易产品）今年仍将持续流出，特别是如果金价跌至每盎司1,200美元以下而美股又持续保持强劲的话，这可能使得先前进场的约100公吨黄金ETP落入亏损的状态。最后，黄金投机净多头部位的持续减少也将令金价的上涨失去动能，2013年黄金投机净多头部位大减82%，年底并创下自2008年以来的五年新低。
也有分析师认为金价有反弹机会。汇丰银行（HSBC）首席贵金属分析师史迪尔（James Steel）表示，新年伊始金价已经有所上扬，而这也可能正是今年的主要趋势，主要是对去年金价大幅下跌的反应；其次，如果去年频创新高的股市开始回调，金价的反弹力道也可能会进一步增强。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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