德国商业银行：黄金现货价格预估1300
关键字：黄金现货价格
近期德国商业银行在投资报告中将2014年黄金现货价预估定在1300美元/盎司，不过其预计明年年底金价将回升至1400美元/盎司。
该行称继今年金价大跌后，明年将会温和上涨，不过这需要投资需求以及亚洲实物金买盘走强的支撑。该行将明年一季度金价预估定在1200美元/盎司;二季度预估为1250美元/盎司;三季度预估为1300美元/盎司，其中投资需求是影响金价走势的重中之重。
更强的投资需求对金价的上行动能而言是必要的，而判断投资需求最好的方法就是黄金ETF持仓变化情况，所以如果明年该ETF持仓外流现象逐渐转好。另外，如果明年亚洲方面的实物金需求大于黄金ETF的外流量，则金价极有可能大幅走强。
该行认为明年黄金ETF持仓外流的现象将停止，最终出现小幅流入。
该行还称当前市场的空方情绪已触及峰值，当前黄金市场的净多头头寸已降至7年来的最低水平，不少机构近期都在纷纷下调金价预估，主流财经媒体上也尽是一些看空黄金的观点，预示着未来金价将展开强势的反弹。此前6月中旬金价曾一度触及1180美元的年度低位，但随后黄金ETF立即出现流入，帮助金价反弹。
此外，该行预计美联储有较大的可能在明年3月或4月开始缩减QE，这也是黄金会在一二季度承压的原因。但从另一方面来看，随后有关美联储货币政策的预期会逐步消散，帮助金价缓解压力。即使美联储小幅缩减QE，但预计明年欧洲央行和日本央行也会继续维持宽松，市场的流动性依旧十分充裕。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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