加特曼：投资黄金赔7% 预期金价再走软
关键字：投资黄金
曾在6月底金价跌至本波低点之际喊出「黄金最坏状况可能已过」的《加特曼投资通讯(The Gartman Letter)》创始人及主编、知名经济学家加特曼(Dennis Gartman)建议投资人现在应该要避开黄金、转而买进钢铁类股。
加特曼15日在接受CNBC节目「Fast Money」专访时表示，金价的技术线形看起来糟透了(crappy)，并未走出应有的格局；幸好他持有的是以日圆计价的黄金，这让他躲过亏损25%的命运、至今仅赔了7%，但这仍是不小的损失。
加特曼并表示，金价在上周五(10月11日)跌破每盎司1,280美元的重要关卡、至1,250美元才开始反弹，预期未来很可能会再次走软。加特曼同时建议投资人买进钢铁股，但碍于美国证券管理委员会(SEC)的规定，他不能透露太多。
根据加特曼在8月份的说法，金价的动态比较像货币，而在外汇市场中，各国货币是以相对于他种货币的价值作交易。也就是说，金价在相对于弱势货币时表现最好，因此应该购买以日圆计价的黄金。
美国钢铁类股最近一个多月出现劲扬走势。AK Steel Holding Corp.股价自9月初起涨，迄今已大涨了29.76%；United States Steel Corp. 9月初迄今股价也大涨了31.4%。此外，Steel Dynamics Inc. 9月初迄今则上涨了12.84%。
大陆需求强劲，加上铁矿砂价格在Q3上升，已让矿产巨擘力拓集团(Rio Tinto Group)第3季铁矿砂产出破纪录，7-9月间共生产5,340万公吨的铁矿砂，超越去年同期的5,260万吨。华尔街日报和彭博社报导，铁矿砂是力拓最主要的营收来源，8成获利都来自于此。大陆业者近来大举补货，铁矿砂多头气势旺盛，Q3价格上扬12%，平均交易价为每吨132.55美元，高于去年同期的112美元。
在此同时，大陆打房禁奢似乎不影响营建业和汽车业对矿产需求，9月的铁矿砂进口量缔造新猷，年增15%至7,460万公吨。力拓预期明年年中铁矿砂的成长年率可达2.9亿吨，比2012年产量提升25%。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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