萨默斯退选或使加息推后 金价有望见底
关键字：美联储加息、金价
鉴于美国前财政社长萨默斯退出美国联邦理事会主席职务的角逐，外界目前关注美联储将在更长时间内维持量化宽松政策。昨日美国短期利率期货上涨，因投资者将对萨默斯的关注转向叶伦，后者被视为更加温和的决策者，现年67岁的FED副主席叶伦目前最被看好为下届美联储主席，一般认为，立场属通膨鸽派的叶伦有望延续伯南克遗志，继续推行宽松货币政策，至于量化宽松（QE）也可能以较温和的方式退场。
交易商目前认为，2014年12月首度升息的机率为55%，2015年1月的机率为68%。该机构基于在芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)交易的联邦基金期货价格来生成上述概率。而交易商在周五时曾认为，美联储于2014年10月首次加息的机率更大。
RJ O’Brien的执行董事John Brady表示：“萨默斯被市场看作是一个可能更快撤走宽松政策的人。市场已经充分反映了他当选的可能”。
对于萨默斯的退出继任主席职务选举，市场普遍对此表示欢迎，皆因此事避免了美联储候选主席的不确定，这导致美国股市一度上扬，道琼斯指数终场上扬逾百点，标普500指数也再次向历史高点叩关，至于NASDAQ指数则收低。
美元指数方面，在劳伦斯·萨默斯退出美联储主席竞选后，道琼斯FXCM美元指数一度走出月度新低10,584，但市场仍然预期周四的美联储利率决议对购债项目有所削减，因此在利率决议前，美元货币组合周一跳空后或有所回调，届时或使金价再次承压。
金价现报1318.2美元，现时交易普遍呈胶着及观望状态，视乎周四晚的议息会议一锤定音，若加息延迟则黄金价格将继续保持1300支撑点并有望利多。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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