麦嘉华：国际金价涨势已暂时触顶
关键字：国际金价
投资黄金的知名看空投资者麦嘉华(MarcFaber)在接受媒体采访时表示，金价涨势已暂时触顶，现在应该考虑买进另一种传统避险资产──亦即近期价格饱受重击的美国公债。
麦嘉华长期看多金价，今年1月还表示，投资人若未持有任何黄金资产“非常危险”；上个月8日更提醒投资人，金价已落到相对便宜。不过，随着目前金价已自今年6月谷底反弹约20%，麦嘉华对于黄金投资的看法也似乎正在改变。
黄金市场的信心已经恢复，目前相对看多；但金价已将出现过一波大涨，因此他认为现在价格将小幅回档下跌。
近期美国通货紧缩忧虑已超越通货膨胀，且从某个角度来看，金价大涨同时美债价格下挫，令人匪夷所思。因为债券是在特定年限后支付一笔固定金额，若美元通缩，则美债价值变升高；通缩也意味着买一盎司黄金所需支付的美元减少，应该会导致金价下跌。
麦嘉华上述有关美国公债投资的理论若要成真，条件是股市会崩跌。他承认投资人尚未开始寻找避险标的，但他认为一旦美国股市大跌程度如他预期的严重，他们就会开始找避风港。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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