金银双双下跌，或受美国假日头寸调整
7月4日讯周四(7月4日)欧市盘中，黄金白银双双下跌，相继刷新日内低点。黄金最低触及1246.42美元/盎司，白银最低触及19.47美元/盎司。金银近日虽然有所回暖，但明显力度不足，后市仍有再度转为大幅下挫的可能性。今日由于美国市场休市，投资者相应调整头寸，或将促使前期空头回补买单出清，黄金白银日内难有转跌为涨的机会。
虽然晚间美国市场缺席，但晚间仍有英欧两大央行助阵市场，但预计晚间两大央行都会采取按兵不动的举措，市场可能会有所失望。对于黄金白银来说，欧洲政局的动荡能激发其避险效应，但由于前期黄金白银屡遭市场大幅抛压，在避险效应面前，也将黯然失色。料黄金白银晚间继续维持区间整理的概率较大。
隔夜优于预期的美国ADP及初请数据并未给黄金白银带来太大的抛压力，有可能是市场仍在等待本周非农数据给出最终答案。若本周非农数据再传捷报，黄金很有可能再度跌回千二关口下方，而白银下破18美元/盎司关口也将是大概率事件。
技术上看，黄金仍然处于近三年以来最弱的状态，此前曾提到过千二关口涉及的是黄金开采成本价的问题，若黄金再度回落至千二下方，将导致多数金矿倒闭，因而料黄金若有跌至千二下方，但停留的时间不会太久。
白银当前虽然超卖严重，但反弹动能不足，导致其只能算局部的小幅修正。若没有太大的利空消息推动的情况下，白银保持在19至19.80美元/盎司之间的区间整理概率较大。
北京时间16:42，现货黄金报1249.19美元/盎司，现货白银报19.56美元/盎司。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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