欧美QE表态成对比 黄金熊市依旧强势
基本面分析
昨日美联储三位美联储官员发表讲话，分别是纽约联储主席杜德利，联储理事鲍威尔，以及亚特兰大联储主席洛克哈特。三位官员讲话大同小异。基本观点依然是安抚市场近期过于担忧的情绪。CRT Capital Group高级公债策略师Ian Lyngen说：“美联储官员的讲话试图说服市场推后对美联储很可能自9月开始缩减购债规模的假设。”
我们也知道从5月开始，市场预期美联储货币政策即将经历大幅度收紧，这体现为高评级政府债券的收益率上升。从5月2日到上周末，美国10年期国债收益率上涨88个基点，至2.51%。这是货币收紧的明确迹象：这些国债收益率上涨，将导致私人部门借款成本上升。
收益率飙升的部分原因是信心日益增强。但美联储有关“逐渐缩减”量化宽松的言论也是一个因素。而很显然，从本周美联储官员等讲话中可以看出，他们或多或少对美债收益率的飙升表示担忧。有市场人士表示，管理一项效果取决于预期的政策很困难，但美联储本能做得更好：这一次释放收紧信号偏早了点。
FXCM通汇国际分析师认为目前基本面的大趋势依然向着利好美元的一面在运行。非美货币能否在短线寻求反弹机遇，恐怕唯有期待下周的超级周洗礼。不管如何，现今QE命运还将取决于未来美国经济状况，特别是失业率和通胀率两项关键指标。
后市来看，美元走势会如何演化，重点需关注未来经济数据的强弱，若数据一直表现不错，那么美联储紧缩料将遥遥可期，美元料继续强势；若后续数据不理想，则美联储可能会推迟购债，甚至增加购债，美元升势料将受阻。今天需关注美国芝加哥PMI和消费信心指数，若数据整体向好，料将提振市场对美联储的紧缩预期，提振美元，打压风险货币。
技术面分析
欧元兑美元
交易策略：高卖出为主，可在1.3060一线附近卖出，止损在1.3095，目标价位1.2950。
英镑兑美元
交易策略：高卖出为主，可在1.5300一线附近卖出，止损1.5340，目标价位1.5170.
美元兑瑞郎
交易策略：逢低买入为主，可在0.9410一线附近买入，止损在0.9375，目标0.9510。
黄金
交易策略：可在1230左右卖出，止损在1246，目标价位1185。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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