美联储助力跌势 金银走在迈向新低的路上
美国Comex 8月期金周三因市场焦急等待美联储议息会议结果，美联储会议结果公布前金价维持企稳态势。然而，之后会议结果宣布维持当前利率及购债规模不变，令美元跳涨，金价瞬间下挫至5月23日来低点。紧接着美联储主席伯南克在发布会中表示可能明年年中就会结束购债，金价进一步扩大跌幅。不好，相较现货黄金(1346.30,-27.70,-2.02%)超1%的大跌趋势，COMEX期金受美联储利率决议的影响相对较小。
美国联邦公开市场委员会在6月政策会议上宣布维持政策利率至近零水平不变，并重申将维持目前的购债力度。这一政策决议与上一次基本决议内容一致。美联储主席伯南克周三在联储公开委员会公布利率决议后马不停蹄地召开了新闻发布会。其表示，如果经济预估符合预期，FOMC预计可能在今年减缓购债步伐，明年年中前将结束购买资产，结束购买时，失业率可能在7%左右。
隔夜曾触及4周低点1360美元/盎司。因市场预测美联储很可能会提前退出QE3计划，近期美国10年期国债收益率急速上涨。目前通胀率非常的低，持有黄金的机会成本正在不断上升，但同时这也令金价连连下挫。值得一提的是，联储对就业市场好转的信心增强，这似乎暗示了退出时点越来越近。联储预计明年经济增长更快、失业率更低。预期明年失业率为7.2-7.3%(上次预期7.3%-7.5%)；后年6.5-6.8%(上次预期6.7%-7.0%)。FOMC声明称失业率高于6.5%时保持超低利率是合适的。由于美联储的定调，未来美元或结束下跌，转而重新回到反弹格局，这将对包括贵金属在内的商品金融属性造成负面打击。我们判断金银价格由于美联储的表态，已经确认进入新的下跌阶段。金价跌破1350美元，指向1320美元风险上升，白银(21.19,-0.43,-1.99%)跌破21美元，指向20.50美元区间风险上升。操作上空单持有为主，注意资金管理。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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