现货黄金跌幅逾1% 关注美联储决议
周二(6月18日)纽市尾盘，现货黄金价格跌幅逾1%，刷新近一个月低位至1363.34美元/盎司，最终收报于1368.84美元/盎司。日内美国物价保持相对稳定、楼市数据尽管稍逊预期但显示继续改善，令市场担心本周美联储利率决议可能会释放出放缓QE的信号，打压金价。此外美股走高，亦打压黄金的避险买盘。
数据显示，美国5月CPI月率仅上升0.1%，通胀压力依然温和。此前美国5月新屋开工总数年化增加至91.4万户，增幅不及预期。同时美国5月营建许可总数97.4万户，预期为97.5万户，4月份维持在100.5万户不变；5月营建许可月率下降3.1%，4月份维持在上升12.9%不变。
总体而言，物价保持相对稳定、楼市数据显示继续改善。向好的数据提振美元，打压金价。此外美股收涨，亦对金价构成打压。美国股市周二全线大涨，连续第二个交易日大幅收高。股市上涨的原因在于投资者对即将于周三(6月19日)发布的美联储政策决议持乐观预期，认为美联储届时会继续维持当前每月收购850亿美元证券资产的措施，并对与此相悖的意见加以驳斥。这使得市场流动性前景再被看好，股市因而走强。
分析师指出，黄金价格走势在自4月份的大跌反弹以来，已经构筑了完整的双头形态，而三角形整理形态一旦结束，金价也非常有可能再度选择向下突破。因而，近期关键技术支撑位一旦失守。金价料将再现大跌。
分析师特别指出，若现货黄金价格失守1353美元这一支撑，将会继续向下挑战4月份时创出的低点1321美元，若该位置再失守，那么金价可能一路下滑，直逼1260美元/盎司的低位。
投资者需关注周四(6月20日)凌晨02:00美联储决议以及随后02:30主席伯南克的讲话。目前来看，市场基本预计伯南克将维持现有政策，因此如果有意外出现的话将明显利好美元，打压金价。
技术面日线图，关注近期波动区间下轨1350美元/盎司，若能有效跌破该支撑，则金价继续下挫概率大。不过预计在周三(6月18日)美联储决议出炉前，金价难以跌破该支撑。
北京时间04:48，现货黄金价格报1368.51美元/盎司。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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