端午节前资金面总体趋紧
6月7日，上海银行间同业拆放利率(Shibor)再次大涨231.2个基点，报8.294%；7天拆放利率升152基点至6.657%；14天拆放利率升249.8基点至7.74%；1月拆放利率升125.15基点至6.34159%。进入6月份以来，Shibor累计涨幅超过30%，反映了近几天来资金面趋紧的态势。
6月6日，央行还发行了110亿元3月期央票，发行量较5月30日下降40亿元，较6月4日高出40亿元，价格为99.28元，参考收益率为2.9089%。同时，央行还展开100亿元28天期正回购操作，规模较5月30日减少30亿元，中标利率仍维持在2.75%。
据计算，本周公开市场到期资金为2020亿元，其中包括1100亿央票和920亿正回购，远高于上周300亿元的到期资金量。鉴于6月4日央行已开展了28天期正回购和3月期央票操作，回笼资金为210亿元，因此本周公开市场实现净回笼1600亿元。
“从目前资金面特征来看，全线利率上行直接的触发因素是跨节效应，即端午节临近造成目前利率奇高，但通常过节效应在节后一两天将逐渐淡化，预计节后市场利率或开始下降。”联讯证券分析师杨为敩表示，目前的利率处于去年年初以来的最高水平，这也与银行体系补缴准备金存款有关，这一因素叠加上跨节效应，夸大了资金面趋紧的态势。
展望未来，市场资金面对短期扰动因素的承受能力显著下降，6月货币市场利率将易涨难跌。杨为敩表示，基于“稳增长”和维护货币市场利率平稳运行的考虑，预计央行将继续通过多种手段保持流动性的合理适度，因此下半年的流动性状况也不会明显偏紧。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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