乌克兰局势令市场紧张不安，美元升至两周高位
周一(1月24日)美元指数尾盘涨0.26％至95.88，之前一度上涨0.5％；北约组织领导人试图阻止俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之际，市场陷入紧张不安的状态，提振了美元；与此同时，2年期美国国债收益率走低，得益于国债拍卖需求强劲以及投资者对美国经济放缓感到担忧。美国数据显示，1月初的商业活动接近停滞，因产能约束挥之不去，而且新一轮新冠感染人数激增导致需求下降。
美联储加息前景和乌克兰局势紧张推高美元
美联储周三会议的前景，引发对美联储即将加息的预期，以及对俄罗斯和乌克兰紧张局势的担忧引发的避险资金流入，推动美元上涨。德意志银行分析师表示，预计美联储将在3月开始加息，今年加息4次，1月份会议将是美联储加息前的最后一次会议。然而，未来几个月出现意外的鹰派风险是存在的，比如美联储有可能在3月加息，然后在今年加息六、七次。
美联储会议或令美元承压
荷兰国际集团表示，美联储可能会在周三的会议上宣布结束量化宽松计划，这可能会给美元带来压力。如果美联宣布结束QE，可能被市场解读为，美联储的资产负债表将在政策正常化过程中发挥重大作用，这可能会给目前有关今年年底前将加息四次的预期泼冷水。美元目前的复苏可能会因此陷入停滞或略微逆转。不过，俄罗斯和乌克兰的紧张局势一旦升级，将对作为避风港的美元产生相反的影响。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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