美元创今年以来新低，商品货币领涨
周二(1月11日)美元指数跌0.37%，报95.61，创去年12月31日以来新低，此前美联储主席鲍威尔的证词暗示，尽管美联储将使政策正常化，政策制定者仍在讨论缩表的方式，并表示，有时可能需要两次、三次或四次政策会议才能做出决定。
美联储资产负债表将是关键工具
美联储主席鲍威尔周二在参议院银行委员会听证会最重要的几处发言都围绕着他对美联储刺激经济的看法。从他的表态来看，随着疫情期经济状况的缓解，大幅收缩资产负债表规模对美联储将是一个至关重要的工具。缩表将给美联储提供更多手段来减少宽松力度，同时又不会令收益率曲线倒挂。
鲍威尔就资产负债表为何在未来可能发挥更关键作用给出了多个理由。首先，鉴于疫情的史无前例，美联储希望获得政策灵活性。由于不确定性增加，选择权是关键，缩表为美联储提供了更多行动选项。在回答宾州共和党参议员Pat Toomey的问题时，鲍威尔花了不少时间来解释美联储无法用需求侧方案（例如加息）来解决供给侧问题，这也暗示出资产负债表可能发挥作用。
加拿大央行将在1月首次加息 全年总计升息5次
摩根大通调整了对加拿大央行政策紧缩周期的展望，目前预计今年首次加息时间会在1月份，比之前预测的4月更早。摩根大通经济学家Silvana Dimino在一份报告中写道，预计2022年全年将有五次加息，到年底政策利率将累计提高1.5个百分点。
摩根大通还预计央行资产负债表在下半年会温和收缩，但预计2022年不太可能出售资产负债表上的资产；货币市场完全消化了3月会议加息的预期，认为1月加息可能性超过50％；根据加拿大央行去年12月的言论，很明显，劳动力市场的动态和经济数据的出色表现令该行更加担心产出缺口缩小的速度快于预期；我们预计与新冠病毒有关的破坏以及对信心的任何打击都是短暂的；病例增长似乎正在放缓。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
最新内容
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.