美元连跌二日，瑞郎兑欧元由逾六年高位回落
周四(11月18日)美元指数尾盘跌0.26%，至95.54；美债收益率涨跌互现；早些时候，美国公布的数据显示，上周首次申领失业金人数超预期；近期美国数据显示，10月通胀率创1990年以来最高，而零售销售数据超过预估，令市场预期美联储会较预期更快升息，推动美元走强。
尽管通胀率预计将创纪录 欧洲央行料仍坚持宽松立场
汇丰研究显示，即便通胀率创下纪录，也不会阻止欧洲央行继续维持超宽松立场。高级经济学家Fabio Balboni等人预计欧元区通胀率本月触及4.5%的历史高位，与此同时央行正准备为刺激计划制定规划。如果11月通胀率高企，欧洲央行行长拉加德可能会不好坚持通胀是暂时性的这一观点，欧洲央行料不会将当前通胀激增放在心上，并将在12月宣布进一步支持2022年的量化宽松。
预计英国脱欧将使英国央行成为利率的第一个推动者
高盛全球固定收益投资组合经理Hugh Briscoe表示，英国脱欧引发的劳动力短缺可能意味著英国央行会在其他主要银行之前加息。正在做空英国政府债券，预计英国央行将在12月加息约15个基点，使基准利率上升至0.25%，然后到2022年6月再加息两次。英镑也有贬值的风险。英国和欧盟之间日益紧张的贸易关系使前景变得复杂。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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