美元走强欧元跌势不止，美债收益率全线攀升
周一(11月15日)受全球经济成长和通胀忧虑以及货币政策预期推动，美元指数尾盘上涨0.42%，报95.51；投资者等待本周公布的美国消费者支出数据；美元兑风险敏感货币走低，兑欧元走高。好于预期的纽约州制造业指数发布后，加上公司债发行活跃，美债收益率升高。
如果美联储加息预期提升 美元本周或保持高位
澳洲联邦银行表示，如果美联储加息预期持续提升，美元本周应会保持高位。FOMC在通胀方面的反应有点落后，上周公布的CPI数据强于预期，表明潜在通胀处于高位并在扩大。尽管如此，本周公布的美国经济数据可能无法证明应该收紧政策与否。在主要货币对中，我行认为澳元兑美元有下行风险；欧元兑美元可能小幅走低。英镑兑美元将在一定程度上受到周二公布的英国就业数据的推动；纽元兑美元也可能会走强，但应关注周四新西兰联储的通胀预期调查。
未来几个月英镑兑美元GBP/USD将暴跌至1.30
英镑兑美元已经跌至10个多月来的最低水平。花旗银行的经济学家预计，英镑未来几个月将跌至1.30，因其未能对英国央行加息预期做出反应。中期预计英镑将大幅走弱，未来3-6个月的目标位于1.30下方。能够更直接地导致英镑走高的因素可能来自于重新出现的脱欧紧张局势，以及英国可能在月底触发脱欧协议第16条。这将开启英国与欧盟之间为期28天的正式谈判，这意味着欧盟的任何报复更有可能通过贸易以外的渠道进行，如果不能解决，将有可能重新征收关税，这可能会引发英镑的更多波动。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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