高通胀推动提前加息押注，美元突破95创近16个月新高
周四(11月11日)美元指数连续第二个交易日上涨，尾盘攀升0.27%，报95.13。周三公布的数据显示，10月美国消费者物价指数(CPI)同比涨幅创1990年以来最大，这加剧了人们对美联储将比预期更早加息的臆测，交易员质疑美联储关于目前的高通胀是“暂时的”这一立场。
美联储缩债和加息力度超过欧洲央行 欧元将贬值
12月16日的欧洲央行会议可能对欧元2022年的走势至关重要，会议将发布欧洲央行的最新预测，包括对2024年通胀的首次预测。预计欧洲央行将表示核心物价保持相对稳定，这有助于该行保持中期预测的连贯性。尽管鸽派和鹰派人士将就中期前景展开辩论，但预计该行在明年年底前将继续购买债券，并将维持购债时间至2023年。顺延着欧洲央行的预期，可能会维持目前利率至2023年，与美国形成鲜明对比。因此预计欧元兑美元EUR/USD将在2022年回落至1.10
“无协议脱欧”再度发生的风险对英镑影响甚微
荷兰国际银行表示，如果英国政府单方面大规模修改《北爱尔兰议定书》，欧盟可能会暂停与英国的贸易协议，再度引发“无协议脱欧”局面的风险，但这一威胁不太可能对英镑产生实质性影响，对市场产生的影响可能不会如市场预期般巨大。与2019年“无协议脱欧”不确定性加剧相比，英欧关系再度紧张对英镑的影响应该“更温和”。预计欧元兑英镑年底前将从目前的0.8561跌至0.8500，受英国央行加息前景支撑。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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