美元與美債收益率走低，日元領漲G-10貨幣
周五(11月5日)美元指數跌0.12%至94.22，在就業報告發布後上漲至94.634，為2020年9月25日以來的最高水平。美元本周仍上漲了約0.1%，這周的一系列央行會議迫使投資者重新設定了加息預期。
預計美國未來幾個月招聘將保持強勁
非農就業報告暗示近期許多不利于招聘的因素正在開始得到緩解。隨著縮債計劃的宣布，市場需要關注的下一個節點是勞動力市場實現充分就業。工資增長顯示就業市場吃緊，衡量就業困難程度的指標徘徊在紀錄高位附近。預計未來幾個月的就業增長仍將受到勞動力供應的限制。健康問題和兒童保育等限制因素應該會得到緩解，重返工作崗位的必要性將會增加。這些因素應該有助于招聘繼續保持強勁的步伐，並使就業水平在明年年底左右恢複。
目前美元的強勢將繼續保持
美聯儲縮債如期而至，且將靈活調整購債步伐。因此，完成縮債的時間也是預期的，盡管我們認為鮑威爾在他的溝通中犯了鴿派的錯誤，但短期利率曲線實際上小幅上升，從而為美元提供了一些支持。目前市場認為，加快縮債速度的可能性大于放緩。這種傾向是合理的，因為本周ADP數據顯示就業報告存在上行風險，而本周其他數據也表現強勁。杠杆市場已經在做多美元，美聯儲的溝通不會阻止這一點。我們上調了第四季度和2022年第一季度對美元的預期，我們繼續認為美元在短期內有上行潛力。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
最新內容
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.