恐怖数据抹去美债收益率跌幅，日元多头却遭打击？
周二（8月17日），因稍早公布的恐怖数据远低于预期，10年期美债收益率收回日内大半跌幅并推动美元兑日元扭转了连续四个交易日的跌势，反弹上行。但避险日元近期表现亮眼，由于日内风险情绪低迷，限制了该货币对的进一步涨幅。随着市场关注点凝聚在本周三美联储7月会议纪要，美国国债收益率料将进一步影响美元对日元走势。
恐怖数据出炉美债收益率大幅回升，日元承压
周二，随着美国方面公布了市场关注的恐怖数据美国7月零售销售，结果该数据表现意外疲弱，各分项数据均不及预期。同时投资者押注鲍威尔在下周会议前不会谈论任何实质性内容。美债收益率收回日内大部分跌幅，并推动美元兑日元扭转跌势。截止发稿，10年期美国国债收益率从逾10个交易日底点附近回升至1.26%上方，几乎收回日内所有跌幅。
3月底筑顶以来，美债收益率始终处于下行趋势，随着对于美联储缩减构债规模的关注，美元与美债收益率走势时有分化，而对于美元兑日元而言，美国国债收益率变化给该货币对带来的影响较美元及日本国债收益率变动更为重大。
风险情绪推动下日元近期表现亮眼
日内，亚洲股市普遍下跌，欧洲股指期货全线下跌。反映出低迷的风险情绪。日元兑美元在日内大部分时间维持下行。同时，荷兰合作银行认为，日元对地缘局势问题更为敏感，并预计日元有望再度走强，若美元兑日元跌破109.00重要心理水平，8月低点108.72附近点位可能会为汇价提供支撑。
在市场继续关注美元兑日元作为日元强势的相对衡量标准的同时，日元实际在交叉盘表现更加亮眼。周一，欧元兑日元时隔一年多以来首次跌破200日均线，周二则一度创下近五个月新低。澳元兑日元等货币对主要支撑也受到冲击，除同为避险货币的瑞郎外，交叉盘主要货币兑日元均下行。后市若风险情绪依然疲弱，日元仍有望重拾涨势。
北京时间周三凌晨1:30鲍威尔将参加一项线上会议，目前鲍威尔的一举一动无疑都将受到市场极大的关注，以期获得美联储缩减购债的进一步线索。预计在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)周三公布7月会议纪要之前，美国国债收益率的变动可能会继续影响美元兑日元的走势。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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