美元兑多数G-10货币下跌，澳元和日元上涨
周二(8月3日)美元指数微跌至92.06，同时10年期美国国债收益率仍接近近期低点；日元和瑞郎扩大涨幅，因与美国利差缩窄，且市场愈发担忧近期呈现的新冠疫情将抑制全球经济增长。稍早，10年期美债收益率再次下跌，随后在纽约时段午后回升至接近周一的1.179%水平。自3月底以来，10年期美债收益率总体呈下行趋势。市场观察人士最近指出，美债收益率下降表明市场担忧未来经济增长可能会让人失望，特别是在Delta变种病例增加的情况下。
汇丰银行：未来几周欧元兑美元或下测年内低点
汇丰银行认为，美联储和欧洲央行货币政策的分化可能足以让欧元兑美元挑战年内低点，预计将在未来几周出现，并不是因为预计会有新的发展，而是因为当前的市场主题将继续削弱对欧元的支撑，全球通货再膨胀的主题和欧元区推出疫苗的前景现在都体现在价格中，欧元区的投资组合外流仍在持续，在战略评估前景之后，欧洲央行加强了利率前瞻性指导，欧元区重新开放对通胀的影响似乎小于美国或英国，7月30日公布的欧元区通胀数据可能显示，核心通胀仍远未达到目标，风险的平衡仍然预示欧元将在夏季低迷时期走软。
法兴银行：澳元兑美元上破0.7450方可确认短线完成筑底
澳元兑美元在周二澳元联储决议发布后小幅跳升，短时突破0.74关口，因澳元联储决议措辞意外不及预期鸽派，并继续执行缩减QE的进程，而没有因为疫情影响暂停行动，同时其也对经济给出了偏向乐观的评估，在此背景下，此前一度占据上风的澳元空头被打了个措手不及，但疫情大局之下，汇价进一步的向上突破也依然艰难、
因而法国兴业银行指出，澳洲联储决议的措辞，也意味着澳元多头与空头的对决此后将进一步白热化。虽然澳元汇价日内走高，但却并没有突破近期的底部短线箱体区间，因而后市围绕行情突破方向多空双方仍会有激烈争夺。仅有在进一步乐观消息助推下，有效上破0.7450一线的30日均线切入位之后，底部形态才能得到确认并打开进一步反弹空间；反之，上月低点0.7290仍是下方的关键支撑，失守后再续跌势奔向0.70关口。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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