经济复苏路漫漫，鲍威尔还是没表态
关键词：经济复苏路漫漫
3月4日，美债收益率持续高位运行，继续打压黄金等避险资产的魅力，而美国就业市场只改善了一点，没有迹象表明物价即将上涨，同时美联储维持低利率的承诺也不会轻易改变，目前市场认为鲍威尔并没有给出明确的应对政策。
美联储周三公布的最新一期褐皮书显示，美国经济在今年前几周继续以温和的步伐复苏，企业对未来几个月持乐观态度，住房需求“强劲”，但就业市场仅缓慢改善。
但美联储在报告中称，就业市场的增长势头没有预期那么强劲，“多数地区报告称，就业水平在报告期内有所上升，不过速度缓慢。”这一结果令联储官员感到失望。他们原本希望支持经济复苏的努力能够带来更快的就业增长。目前就业市场仍比2020年新冠疫情开始之前少了约1000万个就业岗位。
虽然收益率上涨可能增加企业和个人的借贷成本，但最近的趋势反映出经济前景好转，这可能是美联储的政策在发挥作用的证据。随着美债无序抛售至少在目前看来已结束，美元随后重新站稳脚跟。
现在人们越来越感觉到，疫情带来的风险将消退，经济开始出现强劲增长。疫苗接种计划扩大以及可能推出的1.9万亿美元联邦支出方案，提振了经济前景，令市场猜测美联储可能不得不比预期更早地缩减对经济的支持。
劳动力市场问题的部分根源似乎还在于劳动力短缺。长达一年的新冠疫情让一些工人呆在家里，他们害怕接受或返回可能会使他们暴露于新冠病毒的工作。目前，大约15%的美国人口已经接种了至少一剂新冠病毒疫苗，然而每天仍有大约50000例新增冠状病毒确诊病例，证明新冠病毒仍在传播。
投资人特别关心的是，美联储是否会处理短债收益率接近零、而长债收益率急升的局面。如果经济和金融环境恶化，不排除美联储可能再次实施扭转操作。美联储最早在1960年代初采取过卖短买长的扭转操作(twist operation)策略，当时联储卖出期限较短的债券并买入期限较长的债券，以帮助美国经济走出衰退。2011年美联储再次出手，当时美联储已经通过将利率维持在零来锚定短债利率，并通过购买资产来降低长债利率。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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