黄金有望夺回高地，欧美抗疫不断失利
关键词：黄金有望夺回高地
11月2日，美元指数相对稳定，但疫情持续打压市场热度，目前现货黄金有望初选反弹并夺回多头高地。目前市场最关注的就是美国大选结果，如果最后的选举结果不明确，市场资金可能涌向黄金和债券等避险资产。
尽管民主党总统候选人拜登在全美民意检测中保持对现任总统特朗普的优势，但是在那些决定最终结局的战场州，选情依然不相上下。投资人可能因此面临美国在赋税、政府支出、贸易和监管方面有着截然不同的发展。
数周来，市场走势表明投资人押注会出现蓝色浪潮(blue wave)的情况，即拜登胜选，民主党掌控参议院，并在众议院保住多数席次，得以全面掌控国会。这被视为出大规模刺激方案迅速出炉的最可靠途径。
但随着投票日临近，分析师已指出对过度相信拜登胜选感到忧心。不要忘了，2016年投资者预期民主党希拉里·克林顿胜选失准后，资产价格剧震的教训。
不明朗的选举结果——或是两党继续分别控制参众两院，即拜登当选总统，但共和党继续掌控参议院——也会导致财政救助方案的未来浮现更多疑问。
外界认为，共和党继续执政并重新控制国会两院的可能性较低。若特朗普连任且民主党继续主导众议院，这种维持现状的结果将让投资者思考推出较温和财政刺激的可能性，而加税是不太可能的。
新冠疫情继续冲击本已饱受冲击的经济。欧洲确诊病例在五周内翻了一番，累计确诊病例超过1000万。英国首相约翰逊下令恢复英格兰全境封锁，第二波疫情可能压垮该国的卫生服务。
自从欧美国家确诊病例出现再度激增，一些国家重新推出封锁措施以来，美元汇率就一直受到托举。但是随着时间流逝，尤其是美国总统大选结束后，新冠疫情受到市场炒作的热度预料会有所降温。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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