美國國會做出正確選擇,美指創下新低
此前美國總統特朗普的講話激起對達成大規模財政刺激方案的希望,在市場上引發一波樂觀情緒,促使交易商擴大對風險較高貨幣的押注。
他的表態令人更加期望救助方案談判可能取得突破,引發冒險意願上揚。由於預期政府借款增多,這使得10年期美債收益率漲至6月上旬以來高點0.834%。
芝加哥聯儲主席埃文斯週二表示,他認為新一波的冠狀病毒感染不會像他早前認為的那樣嚴重損害經濟,他仍然對美國失業率保持“合理樂觀”的態度——到明年年底料降至5.5%。
在一項最新全國民調中,拜登領先特朗普9個百分點。而在佛羅里達州和佐治亞州,兩人支持率不相上下。距離選舉日還有14天,距離選舉人團會議還有55天。
對於刺激方案能否在參議院順利通過依然存在疑慮,目前更多的焦點轉向美國大選。如果大選之前無法達成協議,並且民主黨無法實現將執政權和國會兩院控制權全部攬入懷中,美國經濟復蘇將處於風險,美元就有可能重燃上漲力道。
週二發佈的政府報告顯示,2020年冠狀病毒大流行期間在美國死亡的人數比根據歷史趨勢預期的死亡人數多了將近30萬人,其中至少三分之二是由於疫情造成的,並補充說新冠病毒致死的可能性被低估了。
能否限制染疫人數攀升將決定經濟能否化解最大的短期風險。人們對於真正需要多長時間才能完全恢復正常經濟活動仍感到不安。美聯儲官員反復說過,經濟復蘇路徑完全取決於該病毒,但是對於已經造成了多少永久性破壞,各界仍然存在重大疑問,也延緩了金市開啟新的單邊行情的時間。
本文來源: 大田環球貴金屬
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