黄金多头创历史新高，美联储或被迫继续出手宽松
周三（8月5日），现货黄金之前交易日上涨势头，继续刷新历史高位至2044.85美元/盎司，根据大田环球分析师指出，美联储有可能转向“平均通胀”目标，即容许甚至超过其设定的2%通胀目标。
美联储或被迫继续出手宽松
随着市场愈发认为美国复苏表现落后于全球其他主要经济体。外界臆测美国财政政策僵局可能会迫使美联储采取更多行动，这种猜测加剧了美国公债收益率的稳步下滑，使得美元受到更为全面的打击。
大田分析师表示表示：“鉴于新冠疫情带来的冲击，无法保证美国经济的表现会优于其他发达国家。美元利率也和其他发达国家经济体利率靠拢，这意味着美元不在那么有魅力。”
美联储官员近期的讲话以及市场资深人士和经济学家的分析均指出，美联储或转向“平均通胀”目标，即容许甚至超过其设定的2%通胀目标。为了实现这一目标，官员们将保证在通胀和就业未达标之前不提高利率。由于目前的通货膨胀率接近1％，失业率高于大萧条以来的水平，因此美联储可能需要数年才能实现通胀目标。
大田分析师认为，尽管出现技术性超买，但仍然看好黄金，因长远看淡美元，同时作为流动性带动的通胀风险、地缘政治风险以及疫情的不确定性的对冲工具。以绝对价值而言，黄金处于历史高位，如果经通胀调整，金价较历史高位低25%。黄金出现技术性超买，主要因为零售投资者买入ETF，而非来自机构投资者投机部署。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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