非农超预期减少,失业率明显增加
关键词:非农超预期减少
4月3日,美国劳工部公布3月非农数据,就业人数超出预期,出现大跌,失业率大幅度回升,但薪资水平向好,=数据公布后,现货黄金出现大幅震荡,但本次数据是在“居家隔离令”发布前得,尚未反映出当前得重大影响。
美国劳工部称,过去三个月,平均新增非农就业人数为24.5万。暂时性的封锁措施令失业人数暴增,3月医疗保健和社会援助/专业和商业服务/零售贸易/建筑行业就业人数录得减少。
3月上半月进行调查时,工资和工作时间都没有受到影响,因此美国人的收入仍然相当不错。然而,4月份的数据可能截然不同。疫情导致的相关工作岗位减少的主要原因是休闲和酒店业工作岗位的大幅减少。这种低工资就业人数减少对平均时薪产生了上行压力,我们预计这种压力将持续到4月份。这将是一个暂时的现象。
美国上周初请失业金人数飙升至逾664万人的纪录高位,因大部分州实施居家措施以抑制冠状病毒疫情。新冠病毒疫情引发的经济危机造就了一波严峻的美国经济数据。
分析师称,随着数以百万计的人失业、企业停工和支出停止,可能还会有更多的糟糕数据出炉。冠状病毒疫情已导致美国经济陷入衰退,美国史上持续时间最长的就业荣景可能在3月结束。
新冠病毒疫情爆发之际,标普全球评级周四确认美国“AA+/A-1+”主权信用评级,评级展望仍为稳定。但受疫情导致的“经济冲击”影响,今年美国政府的债务和财政赤字状况可能恶化。
美国国会预算办公室发布的预测显示,随着疫情危机加剧,美国国内生产总值(GDP)第二季将下滑超过7%。
美联储资产负债表规模本周膨胀至5.86万亿美元的纪录高位。美联储自三周前采取大规模行动限制疫情对经济的冲击以来,其资产负债表规模已增加大约1.5万亿美元,并且在未来几周这一比例肯定还将进一步提高。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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