金价下行趋势有限，全球局势不稳
关键词：全球局势不稳
11月21日，现货黄金维持震荡下行趋势，整体维持窄幅震荡，虽然全球贸易局势传言影响市场波动，但由于整体局势不明确，所以市场波动不明显。同时市场还需要关注全球经济前景、地缘局势以及美联储政策以及英国脱欧等消息。
在美联储观望且本周经济数据稀少的背景下，两大国贸易谈判引发了全球市场投资者的关注，而这其中利多和利空传言消息此起彼伏，反反复复，引发了黄金市场短线剧烈波动。
有关欧元区的经济前景也是影响金价走势的因素。目前看来，欧洲央行认为当前经济前景恶化，但投资者对未来经济前景复苏还是抱有期待。
同时，经济衰退风险从外围向核心蔓延，欧洲经济的“火车头”德国甚至陷入困境。此外，意大利政治风险再掀波澜，英国“脱欧”不确定性进一步损害欧洲经济前景。欧洲央行下调今明两年欧元区经济增长预期至1.1%和1.2%，预计2021年为1.4%。
德国经济正发出谨慎的乐观信号。商业景气指数趋于稳定，第三季度工厂订单稳步增长，随着国外出货量回升，可能对经济增长起到了推动作用。第三季度德国经济出乎意料地增长，避开了人们普遍预期的衰退，但复苏之路将是漫长而崎岖的。
本月，中东两大产油国伊拉克和伊朗爆发骚乱，人们走上街头抗议财政困难和糟糕的治理。此外委内瑞拉的经济崩溃、阿尔及利亚国内的不满情绪加剧，到沙特阿拉伯遭受的导弹袭击，多国的局势都在趋于恶化。
美联储在上次决议决定暂停降息之后，接下来的政策基本维持稳健，因此市场对美联储政策的消息反应平淡，
据报道，尽管今年美国经济增长放缓，但对部分行业疲弱可能蔓延至更广泛经济领域的担忧并没有成为现实，因为美国经济继续以温和的速度扩张，失业率接近50年最低水平，约占美国经济活动70%的消费者支出依然强劲。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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