黃金沖高後回落，貿易前景讓市場難以預測
關鍵字：黃金沖高回落
10月10日，現貨黃金沖高回落，雖然美聯儲會議紀要的影響不大，但市場在貿易談判資訊的影響下出現明顯動盪。同時歐盟威脅制裁也讓美元指數受到了大幅的承壓，中美磋商即將開始，市場密切關注其中是否有讓貿易局勢緩和的線索。
美聯儲上次政策會議紀要顯示，多數決策者在9月會議上支持降息的必要性，但對未來貨幣政策路徑的看法仍存在分歧。
自9月會議以來，經濟數據加劇了人們的擔憂，即貿易緊張局勢的影響正蔓延至更廣泛的經濟領域。美國9月製造業活動降至逾10年最低水準，服務業活動放緩至三年低位。
近年來一直推動美國經濟增長的消費者支出也開始放緩。週四公佈的美國9月CPI核心年率符合預期，持平前值，整體通脹不及預期，加上貿易局勢導致經濟前景面臨風險，支撐了美聯儲將在10月進行第三次降息的預期。
分析師稱：“有很多消息在傳播，有負面的，也有正面的。最後期限是華盛頓時間下周二午夜，屆時我們將清楚談判進展如何，以及下一輪關稅將開徵還是推遲。”
但之後有報導和分析稱，中方可能願在不觸及核心問題的前提下採取一些具體舉措，比如大量購買美國農產品，以便雙方至少達成一個框架性協議，從而使兩國在下月APEC領導人非正式會議時能進一步談判，達成最終協議。
相互矛盾的資訊可謂不勝枚舉，這一切讓兩國磋商開啟前的氛圍顯得愈發撲朔迷離。關於貿易談判的預期和來來回回的消息牽動著市場人士神經，也使得黃金市場出現大幅波動。
法國財長勒梅爾週四還表示，如果有關歐盟補貼航空業的貿易爭端與美國達不成和解，歐盟將對美國產品實施制裁。此言一出，美元指數遂大幅下挫，日內最大跌幅近0.5%，創一周新低98.653。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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