黄金冲高后回落，贸易前景让市场难以预测
关键词：黄金冲高回落
10月10日，现货黄金冲高回落，虽然美联储会议纪要的影响不大，但市场在贸易谈判信息的影响下出现明显动荡。同时欧盟威胁制裁也让美元指数受到了大幅的承压，中美磋商即将开始，市场密切关注其中是否有让贸易局势缓和的线索。
美联储上次政策会议纪要显示，多数决策者在9月会议上支持降息的必要性，但对未来货币政策路径的看法仍存在分歧。
自9月会议以来，经济数据加剧了人们的担忧，即贸易紧张局势的影响正蔓延至更广泛的经济领域。美国9月制造业活动降至逾10年最低水平，服务业活动放缓至三年低位。
近年来一直推动美国经济增长的消费者支出也开始放缓。周四公布的美国9月CPI核心年率符合预期，持平前值，整体通胀不及预期，加上贸易局势导致经济前景面临风险，支撑了美联储将在10月进行第三次降息的预期。
分析师称：“有很多消息在传播，有负面的，也有正面的。最后期限是华盛顿时间下周二午夜，届时我们将清楚谈判进展如何，以及下一轮关税将开征还是推迟。”
但之后有报道和分析称，中方可能愿在不触及核心问题的前提下采取一些具体举措，比如大量购买美国农产品，以便双方至少达成一个框架性协议，从而使两国在下月APEC领导人非正式会议时能进一步谈判，达成最终协议。
相互矛盾的信息可谓不胜枚举，这一切让两国磋商开启前的氛围显得愈发扑朔迷离。关于贸易谈判的预期和来来回回的消息牵动着市场人士神经，也使得黄金市场出现大幅波动。
法国财长勒梅尔周四还表示，如果有关欧盟补贴航空业的贸易争端与美国达不成和解，欧盟将对美国产品实施制裁。此言一出，美元指数遂大幅下挫，日内最大跌幅近0.5%，创一周新低98.653。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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