黄金急速拉升，鲍威尔暗示经济情况恶化
关键词：经济情况恶化
7月10日，美联储主席鲍威尔的国会证词稿提前公布，鲍威尔表示，不确定性持续打压经济前景，商业投资增长明显放缓。美联储7月进行大幅度降息的概率重新出现，美元指数大幅跳水，现货黄金则急速攀升。
鲍威尔强调，商业投资增长似乎明显放缓，可能反映出对贸易紧张局势和全球增长放缓的担忧，似乎继续拖累美国经济前景，美联储将采取“适当”行动，以维持美国经济增长。
鲍威尔指出，美国经济面临的长期挑战包括联邦债务居高不下和不断上升，以及中低阶层收入增长相对停滞。美国第一季度消费者支出增长疲软，疲弱的通胀有可能比美联储目前预期的更加持久。
由于国际贸易的不确定性增加，并且美国通胀疲弱，加上去年大规模减税和政府支出增加带来的刺激效应减弱，美国经济正在放缓。
但鲍威尔也表示，有数据显示，消费者支出已经反弹，并且正在稳步增长。美联储基本预期是，美国经济增长将保持稳定，劳动力市场将保持强劲，通货膨胀率将回升至2%的目标。
鲍威尔补充道，注意到国会给予美联储的独立性。白宫国家经济委员会主任库德洛昨日表示，他支持美联储的独立性，但是总统和其他人也有权公开表达他们的观点(要求美联储大幅快速降息)。
分析师称：“鲍威尔说‘不确定性仍在继续’，这导致市场认为，仅仅是这一点就足以促使美联储本月底降息25个基点，美联储或进行预防性降息。”
分析师称：“7月末，美联储将100%降息。但未来12个月能否实现100个基点的降息仍有待观察。我相信投资者仍有一些挥之不去的疑虑。过去十年，美联储想方设法刺激通胀，但收效甚微。”
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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