美国数据大幅不及预期，美指下挫黄金上涨
关键词：美国数据不及预期
5月23日，美国5月制造业和4月新屋销售年化月率表现均不及预期。暗示美国经济衰退的风险加剧，美元出现短线下挫，黄金则出现小幅度上涨。
具体数据显示，美国5月Markit制造业PMI初值实际录得50.60，远不及预期值52.70和前值52.60。强化了市场对于美国制造业放缓的忧虑。
近几个月美国商业库存膨胀，汽车行业库存的积压正在影响生产。这已经在美国的零售销售数据中有所体现。
尽管劳动力市场状况的持续强劲支撑着经济增长。但有迹象表明，在第一季度出口和库存积累的短暂提振之后，经济活动正在放缓。第二季度的国内生产总值估计低于2.0%。
数据还显示，美国4月季调后新屋销售年化月率大幅下降6.90%，降幅远超预期的2.50%，前值为增长4.50%。四月份房地产市场大部分仍然疲软。
分析人士认为，随着去年特朗普政府减税和支出增长带来的大规模刺激逐渐消退，美国经济正在失去增长速度，这可能会进一步打击美国房地产市场的信心。
与此同时，美国10年期国债收益率触及2.329%，为2017年12月以来最低点。收益率曲线倒挂的迹象越发的明显，暗示美国经济衰退的风险加剧。
供销社表示，如果只有美国经济数据疲弱，投资者会感到担忧，但加上贸易紧张情势后，投资者需要警惕未来三到六个月进一步放缓。
不过日内稍早公布的5月德国服务业和制造业PMI均下降。而2019年欧洲议会选举周四起拉开大幕。民调显示，疑欧党派料扩充地盘，欧元面临新的多重风险，进而为美元提供支持。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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