黄金回吐涨幅，贸易局势打压股市，美联储酝酿变化
关键词：黄金回吐涨幅
黄金因全球贸易局势紧张而回吐日内涨幅，同时非美货币出现不同程度的走弱，支撑美元指数走高。目前美联储意识到， 市场迟迟无法达成通胀目标。需要改变当前的经济政策，酝酿变成政策。
据《环球时报》报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间周日(5月5日)发推特称，从本周五(5月10日)开始，美国对中国价值2000亿美元的输美商品所征收的关税将从目前的10%增加到25%。
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市场猝不及防，沪综指收跌5.58%，盘中创2月25日以来新低至2876.47点，欧洲股市盘初也挫跌近2%。但英镑兑美元暴跌逾0.6%，欧元兑美元最大跌幅近0.4%，支撑了美元的相对强势地位，遏制黄金多头。
特朗普的表态令围绕美中接近达成协议以结束贸易摩擦的预期蒙上阴影。美中贸易摩擦已令全球经济增长放缓，并扰乱了市场。若美国周五上调关税，将是去年9月对2000亿美元中国商品征收10%关税后首次采取行动。
美联储主席鲍威尔在本月的议息会议中对近期美国通胀疲弱轻描淡写，称之为“暂时性”情况，宣称政策立场是“适宜的”。鲍威尔没有给出美联储正考虑降息的任何暗示，令美国股市泄气，货币市场将一度超过60%年底前降息预期从大砍至40%左右。鲍威尔肯定也惹火了特朗普，他之前已经抨击鲍威尔对美国经济的支持还不够。
美联储政策制定者担心，他们没有能力在当前以通胀达标为导向的策略下应对下一次经济衰退，今年很有可能在温和通胀和低借贷成本的世界中审查新的利率管理策略。
但是在大衰退结束十年后的今天，美联储显然正在处理新的经济规范。即使美国失业率创下近半个世纪来的低点，通货膨胀率和利率却仍难以大幅上升。这使得中央银行在降低利率以刺激经济方面的余地远低于历史上的水平。如果不是因为其他经济体表现更差，美指价位肯定远比现在来得低。
市场得观察本周四(5月9日)与周五(5月10日)先后出炉的生产者与消费者通胀数据，从而确认通胀是否真的如鲍威尔所言的“暂时性疲弱”。倘若果真如此，黄金可能很快重启跌势。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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