黃金回落不用擔心，美聯儲可能降低帶來新熱度
關鍵字：黃金回落
3月26日，黃金市場上漲幅度不大，市場略有平靜。美元指數有所回升，但由於全球經濟下滑的擔憂，市場對未來的行情走向不確定，美聯儲年底降息概率再度上升。市場可能會湧向黃金市場以求避險。
10年期美債收益率週一跌至2.375%，為2017年12月以來新低。受此影響，全球股市週一下挫，圍繞全球經濟放緩的擔憂打壓美國公債收益率，並提振了投資者對避險黃金的需求。
由於經濟出現放緩跡象，美聯儲上周讓持續三年的貨幣政策收緊進程戛然終止，放棄今年繼續升息的預測，並稱將在9月停止逐步縮減資產負債表的行動。自那以後，三個月期國債和10年期國債收益率差轉為負值，為10多年來首現。
波士頓聯儲主席羅森格倫週二發表講話稱，他預計第一季美國經濟增長將會“非常疲弱”，但年內剩餘時間可能更加接近2-2.5%的增速。
儘管他承認美聯儲暫停升息是“負責任的做法”，但他警告投資人不要對美債收益率曲線倒掛過度解讀。儘管外界普遍認為這是經濟衰退的一個信號。
美國3個月及10年期公債收益率曲線出現2007年首次倒掛，令投資者避險情緒隨之急升，傳統上這被視為經濟衰退的預警，但因美國經濟增長僅小幅放緩，且美股累積漲幅不小，因此瑞銀不認為這預示美國經濟衰退，保持美國利率今、明年預測不變。
美聯儲最新的聲明透露在未來一段時間，容許通脹溫和高於目標通脹，反映實際利率很可能已見頂，甚至進入了下降趨勢；儘管市場對美國降息的預期升溫，但美國降息的門檻仍然很高，保持美國利率今、明年預測不變。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
最新內容
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.