欧银决议鸽派态度超预期
关键词：欧银决议
欧洲央行决议维持三大利率不变，但预计利率在2019年之前保持不变，同时将在9月实施为期两年的定向长期再融资。由于欧银决议的鸽派程度超出预期，美元指数短线走高，现货黄金短线下跌后再次攀升。
近期欧元区数据疲软是支撑美元持续走强的关键因素。不过随着近期市场对于欧洲央行维持利率不变，加上欧洲经济数据出现了小幅回暖的迹象，这使得近期美元走势有所收敛，近两个交易日承压于97下方做窄幅震荡。
此前市场普遍预期欧洲央行不会调整前瞻指引，至少到4月会议上才会有所表态，同时近期欧洲央行曾表示目前放缓主要由暂时性因素所致，这些因素很快就会消退，进一步强化了市场对于欧洲央行不会调整前瞻指引的预期。
因此随着欧洲央行修改前瞻指引，令市场对于欧洲增长前景的忧虑情绪明显回升，因而推升美元走高。
值得注意的是，美元在上涨的过程中一度回吐大部分涨幅，自97.08附近回落至96.94附近。与此同时，一直备受美元打压的黄金在出现了2美元下跌后回升4美元至1289.09美元/盎司，因避险情绪回升带动黄金走强。
不过考虑到欧洲经济前景的进一步恶化，美元随后再次刷新高点至97.1796，而黄金则回吐大部分涨幅，现报1286.33美元。
尽管欧元区经济前景进一步恶化使得市场避险情绪明显回升，黄金短线走高，但是这也令市场认为德拉基很难释放乐观的信号，进一步弱化了美联储近期鸽派立场的影响。
而近期欧洲经济的走软是推动美元走高，施压金价的关键因素，因此欧洲央行今日的表态进一步凸显了美元的避险作用，因而再次施压黄金。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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