美联储鸽声不断，黄金牛市狂奔
关键词：美联储鸽派发言
1月31日，人民币兑美元大幅度走高，限制金价的涨幅。同时美联储主席鲍威尔的言论也延续了上一次货币决议的鸽派倾向，金价不断攀升。同时本周非农数据和中美两国的贸易谈判也成为了市场聚焦的重点。
金价终于结束了12月以来的区间波动走势，在美联储会议后，金价攀升至年内新高1323.7美元，可能会继续受到追捧。金价似乎有望测试2018年五月高点1326美元。
美联储将利率维持在2.25-2.50%不变，因为委员会关注的是联邦基金利率和资产负债表。从本质上讲，美联储表示他们正处于观望状态，但风险不再倾向于进一步加息。美联储似乎已经向市场投降，并将在市场做出决定。资产负债表将不再处于自动驾驶状态。美联储表示，他们的资产负债表上有充足的储备，这意味着他们可以用完这些储备。
美联储还表示，他们将保持耐心，并将认真对待资产负债表的最终结果。消息一出，收益率暴跌，金价得以上涨。由于政府停摆、与中国的贸易谈判以及英国脱欧，各方讨论的信号相互矛盾，美联储保持了增长势头。
在供应方面，2018年全年黄金总供应量4490.2吨，同比增长1%。这其中，矿产量3346.9吨，同比增长1%，创下记录。回收黄金供应量1172.6吨，同比增长1%；在全球各地环保要求越来越严格的情况下，黄金矿产行业也受到了不少影响，不少国家的黄金矿产量都出现了大幅走低，印尼产量大跌24%，南非产量大跌18%。不过俄罗斯的黄金矿产量出现了10%的增长。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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