多空角力，市場波動將迎來怎樣變化
由於全球經濟放緩，2019年，大宗商品有著較強的下跌趨勢，同時全球債務風險可能進一步積累空頭。但是市場有分析師認為，2019年，市場可能出現轉機，投資者可以尋求上漲趨勢來做單。
2019年，黑色系市場將體現出以下特徵：其一，供給側改革臨近尾聲，環保限產讓位“保經濟”，鋼材、煤炭中上游供給端影響減弱；其二，銷售下行疊加資金偏緊，地產開工面積及投資額預計大幅回落，地產引發的工業品補庫預期下滑，工業品需求減弱；其三，上下游利潤再分配。
政策方面，2019年污染防治將不會明顯放鬆，環保限產仍將會階段性影響鋼廠生產節奏。同時，在經濟下行壓力加大的情況下，國內貨幣及財政政策有望進一步寬鬆，將階段性提升市場預期。
聖地牙哥消息，智利統計局INE週一公佈的數據顯示，智利11月生產銅540720噸，較上年同期增長7%，創下至少四年內銅產量最高月度紀錄。INE稱，1-11月銅產量總計為533.9萬噸，同比增長6.1%。
2018年，註定是豆粕市場不平凡的一年。這一年，阿根廷的大幅減產令連粕在年後開啟暴走模式，而隨後中美貿易摩擦的爆發及反復則又讓豆粕行情坐上了過山車，起起落落。隨著G20會談後中美重回談判桌前，在貿易摩擦邊際影響降低的背景下，預計2019年豆粕市場將重回基本面。
中美貿易摩擦令2018年國內大豆需求放緩，美豆在豐產之下結轉庫存創下歷史新高。進入2019年，巴西大豆豐產在即，阿根廷產量恢復性增長，而美豆高庫存亟待消化，在南北美競爭出口的局面下，預計美豆盤面及大豆升貼水報價難有起色，進口成本端難有太多支撐。
而國內需求端卻缺乏增長亮點，養豬業困境對國內豆粕需求形成不利影響，國內在貿易摩擦後採取措施多元化蛋白進口來源，雜粕替代增長成為趨勢。在供需兩方面均不支持豆粕行情大漲的情況下，預計豆粕價格易跌難漲。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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