多空角力，市场波动将迎来怎样变化
关键词：多空较量
由于全球经济放缓，2019年，大宗商品有着较强的下跌趋势，同时全球债务风险可能进一步积累空头。但是市场有分析师认为，2019年，市场可能出现转机，投资者可以寻求上涨趋势来做单。
2019年，黑色系市场将体现出以下特征：其一，供给侧改革临近尾声，环保限产让位“保经济”，钢材、煤炭中上游供给端影响减弱；其二，销售下行叠加资金偏紧，地产开工面积及投资额预计大幅回落，地产引发的工业品补库预期下滑，工业品需求减弱；其三，上下游利润再分配。
政策方面，2019年污染防治将不会明显放松，环保限产仍将会阶段性影响钢厂生产节奏。同时，在经济下行压力加大的情况下，国内货币及财政政策有望进一步宽松，将阶段性提升市场预期。
圣地亚哥消息，智利统计局INE周一公布的数据显示，智利11月生产铜540720吨，较上年同期增长7%，创下至少四年内铜产量最高月度纪录。INE称，1-11月铜产量总计为533.9万吨，同比增长6.1%。
2018年，注定是豆粕市场不平凡的一年。这一年，阿根廷的大幅减产令连粕在年后开启暴走模式，而随后中美贸易摩擦的爆发及反复则又让豆粕行情坐上了过山车，起起落落。随着G20会谈后中美重回谈判桌前，在贸易摩擦边际影响降低的背景下，预计2019年豆粕市场将重回基本面。
中美贸易摩擦令2018年国内大豆需求放缓，美豆在丰产之下结转库存创下历史新高。进入2019年，巴西大豆丰产在即，阿根廷产量恢复性增长，而美豆高库存亟待消化，在南北美竞争出口的局面下，预计美豆盘面及大豆升贴水报价难有起色，进口成本端难有太多支撑。
而国内需求端却缺乏增长亮点，养猪业困境对国内豆粕需求形成不利影响，国内在贸易摩擦后采取措施多元化蛋白进口来源，杂粕替代增长成为趋势。在供需两方面均不支持豆粕行情大涨的情况下，预计豆粕价格易跌难涨。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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