美元前景不看好，黄金借力美联储讲话翻身
关键词：黄金翻身
11月19日，现货黄金价格回暖，徘徊在一周高点下方，美元指数刷新今日新低点。美联储官员的言论表明崔全球经济增长持谨慎态度，促使交易员重新评美国味蕾的升息不发，导致美元走势低迷。
美联储决策者上周五(11月16日)暗示，他们对全球经济增长可能放缓略微有些担忧。全球增长放缓担忧已经让市场预期，美联储的升息周期很快将逐渐结束。
汇通网观察认为，这些谈话出炉之际，正直美元多仓升至近两年来最高位。这些评论令一些交易员质疑美元涨势是否快要结束，美元遂承压。
市场的预期与美联储两个月前摆出的利率路径分歧愈发扩大，凸显美联储官员面临的最大问题：在美国经济增长持续推低失业水平并创造就业的同时，对于越来越多的潜在问题要给予多大的重视。
9月时美联储官员预计，今年年底前再升息一次，明年需要再升息三次。但过去一个月美国TIPS损盈平衡通胀率急剧下跌，美国五年期TIPS损盈平衡通胀率本周稍早触及2017年底以来最低水平。
费城联储主席哈克接受华尔街日报采访时因此表达了怀疑态度。报导援引他的话称：“现在我并不确信12月调息是个正确的举动，因通胀数据不高。”
美联储可能在2018年之后持中性立场、中美贸易争端持续之际全球经济放缓将增强投资者对黄金避险属性的兴趣。
纽约联储主席威廉姆斯(John Williams)将于周一稍晚讲话，交易商将看看他是否和其他联储官员有着同样的看法。
投资者对美元的短期前景更加谨慎。关于美国经济增长可能已见顶的观点日益增强，开始对美元涨幅带来侵蚀，可能让黄金获得解脱。
投资银行高盛周一称，预计明年美元将全线下跌，因美国经济成长放缓至与全球平均状况更一致的水准。
分析师说：“当美元因为美联储将暂停升息而最终走软时，这个时刻如果到来，大家最好不要错过，那就是进入新兴市场的时机。”
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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