美国CPI走软，难以撼动美联储加息预期
关键词：美国CPI数据
11月14日晚，美国CPI数据年率不及预期，但是市场对美联储年底加息的祁王仍然在支撑着美指的上行趋势。而现货黄金整体表现有小幅下挫，曾一度破开千二关口后拉起。目前多空在千二关口胶着。
随着美国10月未季调核心CPI年率不及预期，或削弱市场对于美联储进一步加息的预期，上周五美国10月PPI数据远好于市场预期一度将投资者对美联储年底加息概率又上了一个层次。
尽管此次CPI数据令人失望，但美国近期整体经济数据仍相对乐观。此前，美联储戴利曾表示，经济超越长期可持续的增长步伐。美国经济强劲、利率上升以及美元的避险地位，将支撑美元进一步上涨。
同时，对于美股来说可能是一个好消息。随着10月美国薪资年率增长明显，加之上周五美国PPI数据飙升，通胀加大的压力一度令美股疲软。
从上周开始，美元的强劲是金价走低的主要原因。预计未来几周黄金还将遭遇困境，一直到美联储12月利率决议之前都是。投资者需要继续关注美国经济数据和美联储官员讲话。
美元周二回落，跌势延续到周三早盘，随后收复日内跌势。美元指数近期高位企稳，徘徊97关口上方，其中主要存在两大原因，一方面意大利预算问题导致欧洲政治局势担忧加剧，欧元、欧洲股市走低，提振美元。另一方面，市场预期美联储将在年底加息，并在2019年再度加息两次。
近阶段欧洲政治杂乱，美联储将继续保持紧缩路径，加息预期已将美元指数维持在97关口以上，这继续增加黄金的下行压力。价小幅徘徊千二关口上方，近期留意1190美元一线，预计跌破1190美元/盎司将促使投资者再次增加其空头头寸推动金价下行。
晚间留意美联储理事夸尔斯出席众议院金融服务委员会专家小组会议时的讲话，或再度提振美联储加息预期。此外，英国内阁开会审议脱欧协议草案仍令投资者感到担忧，英镑承压一定程度上也支撑美元走强，从而间接导致金价疲软。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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