美联储决议：巩固加息前景
关键词：美联储决议
美联储将公布利率决议，维持利率不变为大概率时间。市场目光集中在货币政策声明上，进一步预测明年加息前景的变化。美联储本周会议是，民主党多会控制权，股市波动激烈，外界预测美国经济明年放缓的背景下召开。
就本周的美联储政策声明而言，决策者的主要议题可能在于，随着特朗普上任以来的减税及增支刺激效应消退，他们要如何对经济或已达刺激举措最佳效应的高原期表达自己的看法。
美联储或许会把房屋市场可能放慢且企业投资下滑，当作其认为经济回落的理由。而与此同时，自美联储9月会议以来，就业增长保持稳健，家庭支出亦是如此。
但近期经济数据结果几乎不会动摇美联储在12月上调利率(那将是今年的第四次升息)、明年更进一步升息的计划。美联储同时会采用能让市场保持平静的论调。围绕贸易摩擦和货币政策收紧的担忧最终或将延续至2019年。
华尔街日报援引分析人士观点称，美联储似乎准备在年底前下调支付给银行的超额准备金利率(IOER)，或令这一利率进一步远离其基准联邦基金利率目标区间的高端，不过此举从本质上来说将主要是技术性的。
美联储希望将IOER用作为利率走廊系统的理论下限，然而自金融危机以来，联邦基金利率便始终在IOER的下方运行，令IOER变为了利率走廊的实际上限，联邦基金利率与IOER之差则被视为判断美联储控制短期利率有效性的指标。
由于恰逢中期选举，本次会议进程及决议公布时间均较以往惯例推迟了1天。那些预计民主党将赢得众议院控制权，以及共和党将扩大在参议院多数优势的调查结果，也可能是美联储会议内部讨论的焦点。
美国中期选举尘埃落定，特朗普所在的共和党进一步巩固了参议院多数党地位，民主党夺回国会众议院控制权，将参与明年的立法议程，不过党内严重的分歧将令立法程序变得艰难，大量提案在民主党掌控的众议院获批后，极有可能在共和党掌控的参议院受阻。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
最新内容
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.