黄金受避险情绪冲高，慎防包威尔利空来袭
关键词：黄金利多
现货黄金出现暴力拉升，一飞冲天，10月2日大幅飙涨，美市盘中最高上探至1207.74美元/盎司，跳涨近20美元。金价重新站上1200关口上方，站稳自8月24日以来的高位，同时美元也稳步上涨，美元指数持稳在95关口上方。黄金受到避险情绪冲高，发挥其最大作用，但同时慎防包威尔的利空消息来袭。
周二市场避险需求急升，在意大利新成立反建制政府执政的背景下，意大利坚持2019年2.4%的预算赤字目标引发了市场的恐慌，意大利副总理、反建制的五星运动党首迪马约表示，尽管受到一些威胁，但仍将继续推进预算计划，并警告欧盟不要干预，称金融市场对持有偏见的欧盟的担忧相当敏感，议员有权自由表达对欧元的看法。
周二黄金的大涨主要是受到意大利引发的避险需求的推动，但也有分析师指出，对周二的大涨要谨慎。股市的抛售使投资者十分紧张，因此也带来了一些避险需求，但是反弹过分依赖股市的抛售，若金价不能升至1205美元/盎司上方，是很难吸引后续买盘的。对此次反弹，应持谨慎态度。市场参与者也将高度关注美联储主席鲍威尔在国家经济联合会前发表的讲话，讲话题目是“就业和通胀展望。”上周，美联储刚实施了加息，并表示在2019年末实施4次加息，2020年实施另一次加息，因经济增长稳定，就业市场强劲。加息将会提振美元，从而增加购买和持有黄金的成本。
黄金价格飙升，击穿了1191美元的阻力水平，其在过去的三天里限制了涨势的幅度，并突破日线均线汇合处1197/98美元，将涨势延续至1200美元心理门槛上方。新一轮涨势也突破了55下降均线1203美元水平，证实了新的强劲的看涨立场。在鹰派美联储推升美元之后，重新获得强劲的避险吸引力可能会推动金价走高，以挑战8月28日高点1214美元和1309美元/1160美元跌势的38.2%回撤位1217美元这两大关键障碍。金价需要收于1200美元水平上方才能确认涨势，以产生看涨信号，暗示金价将进一步推进。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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