中美贸易战无法带动美元多头
关键词：中美贸易战
本周美元指数处于劣势，正在逐步下调，当前市场对于中美贸易战的升级的忧虑有所缓和，同时对于风险资产的偏好持续热络。美元正在逐步丧失避险属性的优势，当前向上动能仿佛已经全部耗尽。
实际上本周截止目前美元指数未能成功获得上行动能，虽然本周中国和美国互相征收新一轮贸易关税，但与此前几轮不同的是，本次贸易紧张局势升级未能提振美元。
一季度中大量构筑美元投机性净空头头寸，以至于二季度，由于利差的原因，这部分空头头寸则被“狠狠地”逼空，持续利好美元多头的走势。
同时由于特朗普大肆追求其理想的美国贸易关系，市场将目光转至了全球贸易紧张局势和对全球经济增长预期的下调，即便美国经济仍扬帆远航。
通常当某一央行打算提高利率时，往往是该国货币的看涨信号。但当前的美元恐怕无福消受这一利好，有分析人士指出，对下周美联储的加息预期，可能正闪烁着卖出美元的信号。
分析师表示，在未来6-9个月内，美元兑一篮子货币可能会暴跌10%。美元目前处于阶段峰值，未来6-9个月欧元兑美元可能从周三的约1.17关口升至1.25关口，这也是做空美元兑日元的良机。
基于联邦基金期货，市场当前认为美联储下周加息25个基点几乎是肯定的。周三的合约显示，到2018年底，市场定价的加息幅度将超过45个基点；投资者的注意力甚至已经越来越多地转向明年的加息前景，美联储此前设定的2019年加息三次的路径似乎也愈发得到市场认同。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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