美联储加息预期迎来美指反扑
关键词：美联储加息预期升高
8月30日，因为美国7月消费数据良好，强化了美联储的加息预期。数据显示，美联储下个月加息预期偏高，美元再次走强打压黄金多头。金价大幅回落，但是预计未来几周内，金价将再次出现反弹。
数据显示，7月核心PCE物价指数年率报2%，与预期持平，前值为1.9%；7月核心PCE物价指数月率报0.2%，符合预期。与此同时，美国申请失业救济的人数上周有所上升，但潜在的趋势继续指向强劲的劳动力市场，这应该会让美国经济在今年保持强劲增长。
上周鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上“放鸽”之后，美元一直较为弱势，鲍威尔的讲话突显出他的务实精神和适应经济变化的意愿。虽然昨晚公布的美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率修正为4.2%，但仍未大幅提振美元走强。
美元日内走高，但周线已连续第三周下跌，新兴市场抛售信号，美债收益率曲线倒挂的可能性及美国贸易逆差的扩大均可能逐步蚕食前期涨幅，此前强劲上涨势头恐难再现。
经济衰退风险的美国收益率曲线倒挂的可能性，可能促使美联储放缓加息步伐，尤其是在美国经济增长数据掉头向下的情况下。根据联邦基金期货数据显示，美国第二季度GDP年化增长高于预期，巩固了下个月加息的预期，概率为96％。
市场分析人士指出，尽管金价当前跌破1200美元关口，黄金后续仍有反弹动能。但只要美元保持强势，那么金价短期仍将受到压制。通常情况下，金价往往随着美元的走强而变得疲软。因美元指数走强，使得使用其他货币的买家的黄金价格更加昂贵。
由于国际贸易争端和土耳其货币危机，今年迄今已下跌约7.7％，投资者更倾向于将美元作为避风港。黄金价格因此出现连续第五个月下跌，这是金价自2013年初以来最长的连跌纪录。 值得注意的是，强势美元和美国经济增长正在损害金条的吸引力，但土耳其金融危机可能蔓延的担忧可能会让金价走势出现逆转。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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