美国CPI创下新高，美联储可安心加息
关键词：CPI数据
在美国公布的7月通胀数据中，核心通胀年率创新10年新高，并且通胀率趋势继续走强，美国通胀压力稳步上升，预期估计美联储将按部就班逐步加息。
美国7月核心CPI录得2008年9月以来最大涨幅，且基本趋势继续走强，显示通胀压力稳步上升，料令美联储按部就班地逐步加息。
在低失业率和雇主填补职位空缺的难度加大的背景下，通胀压力预计将继续加大。随着制造商支付更高的价格，原材料成本的上升预计也将推高通胀，部分原因是特朗普政府对木材、铝和钢铁进口征收关税。
稍早前公布的美国7月潜在生产者物价指数(PPI)稳健增长。就业市场强劲和通胀上升，可能使美联储处于9月实行今年第三次升息的轨道上，并料在年底之前再升息两次。
保护主义政策已令美国陷入与中国、墨西哥、加拿大和欧盟等主要贸易伙伴间你来我往的关税交锋中。外界密切关注物价数据，寻找特朗普政府贸易保护主义政策可能导致的企业原材料成本上升。
分析师表示：“贸易战紧张情势的阴云近在眼前，今年稍晚可能会靠得更近。”
美国向进口钢铝加征关税，招致贸易伙伴的报复行动。美国还向中国商品加征关税，中国方面则以同等规模的行动加以回击。制造业者越来越多地抱怨钢铝价格上涨推升生产成本，同时也扰乱了供应链。
分析师表示：“目前来看，制造商吸收了部分上升成本，但在更多关税即将实施，以及产能利用率较高的情况下，我们认为最终需求通胀开始更明显地上升是迟早的事。”
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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