贸易战在前，美联储在后，联手施压黄金
6月19日，受避险买盘带来支撑，现货黄金价格一度冲高逾0.4%，因中美两国贸易争端升级引发了股市抛售。但是在美元异常凌厉的上攻走势开启后，金价颓势还是难免原形毕露。目前市场对贸易战究竟利好还是利空美元看法存在分歧；而美联储政策趋向鹰派，则肯定利空黄金价格。
目前市场对贸易战究竟利好还是利空美元看法存在分歧；而美联储政策趋向鹰派，则肯定利空黄金价格，并且从短线来看，盖过了贸易战风险的影响。
美国总统特朗普威胁将对2000亿美元的中国商品加征10%关税，中方迅速回应警告将进行反制。令中美间针锋相对的贸易战升级。投资人及企业界担心贸易战全面爆发恐将冲击全球经济增长。
先前美国政府祭出贸易保护措施时，曾削弱美元。但一些分析师称，贸易战可能有利于美元，进而打压金价，因为进口关税将加速美国通胀。美国正处在积极升息周期中，经济表现已然强劲。
此外，美联储还轻微调高今年GDP增长及通胀预测，对失业率的展望亦更趋乐观。点阵图预示年底前仍有两次加息机会，市场普遍认为美联储的取态较为鹰派。
分析师表示：“美联储已经升息，并且升息预期点状图已显示今年或将再升息两次，这未必意味着美联储会付诸实施，但黄金市场正对此作出反应。”
CFTC数据显示，在6月5日到12日期间，对冲基金经理持有的黄金投机性净多仓略微增加，投机性净多仓虽然有所增加，但总量仍处于较低水平。
而在此期间，金价从1297美元下跌至1296美元，黄金ETF市场的表现也不尽人意，可见投资者对黄金的投资热情极低。黄金市场显然受到了美联储的较高利率打压。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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