美联储鸽派加息，黄金蠢蠢欲动
黄金对地缘政治风险和贸易紧张局势加剧的反应非常谨慎，但下周美联储“鸽派”加息可能最终会帮助金价攀升至每盎司1300美元以上。
大田环分析师表示：”如果美联储释放出这样一种信号，即打算坚持原先的计划，允许通胀率超过目标。那么，我们怀疑下周的FOMC会议可能温和加息，这可能导致金价升至每盎司1300美元以上，而实际利率依然很低。”
过去几周，黄金与现金流收益资产的竞争中一直失利，尽管在贸易战威胁和地缘政治紧张局势加剧之际，黄金具有避险的吸引力。
遏制金价上涨的因素是美元的上涨，上周美国公布的强劲经济数据为美元提供了额外支撑。
分析师表示：“美国积极的宏观经济数据增强了人们对美国经济增长的信心，所有人都关注下周广受期待的美联储加息事宜。”
然而，从长期来看，地缘政治紧张局势的影响不可小视，尤其是美国与中国的贸易争端，以及美国对墨西哥、欧盟和加拿大加征关税后，美国盟友可能展开针锋相对的报复措施。
分析师指出：“全球贸易活动引发的新担忧表明，由于关税在本质上推高通胀，黄金价格应该上涨。然而，考虑到金价波动范围有限，美国乐观的宏观经济数据，加之油价出现上涨，我们预计，在金价最终复苏之前，下周将表现平淡。”
自5月份以来，黄金价格一直低于每盎司1300美元的关键心理价位。6月的第一周，黄金的表现相当平淡。随着美元指数隔夜下滑后有所反弹，金价6月5日出现小幅走低。
北京时间6月5日9:34，现货黄金报每盎司1291.92美元。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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