意大利大选遇上贸易战，黄金多头有望
3月5日，现货黄金价格继续反弹，因市场对全球可能爆发贸易战感到恐慌。此外，意大利大选结果面临的不确定性持续萦绕投资者，欧元区经济前景可能引发市场新的忧虑，贵金属受到进一步支撑。
上周四(3月1日)，美元指数一度创下六周高点90.93，但之后便大幅下滑，周一盘中刷新近四个交易日低点至89.738。尤其是在美国总统特朗普宣布，将对进口钢、铝产品课以重税后，市场恐慌情绪大面积扩散，人们普遍担心，美国的主要贸易伙伴将联手采取报复性措施，进而引发贸易战。
分析师在研报中称：“一旦美国进一步升级同其他国家本已十分紧张的贸易关系，不仅将显著打压美元对投资者的吸引力，而且还将给美股、美债等资产带来负面影响，加上美国财政和政治前景存在脆弱性，黄金的避险魅力将大幅提升。”
除去黄金以外，避险货币日元周一同样走强，亚洲股市则普遍下挫。欧元兑美元贬值，因投资者担心，意大利大选可能推举出反建制派政府。
分析师称：“我认为黄金价格上扬，部分要归功于意大利大选前景的不确定性，欧元区可能面临新的麻烦。”
意大利大选可能产生悬浮议会，并且若市场先前的预测一旦成真，即意大利三大主要政党无一获得单独组个权利，那么意大利最终选出主流温和派政府的前景就会相当渺茫，欧盟将会面临新的棘手难题。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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