黄金年末有望达到1325
尽管近来黄金窄幅振荡让投资者很沮丧，但全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德集团、盛宝银行等均表示现在不是放弃黄金的时候，尽管黄金最近挑战1300关口失败，年末仍有望达到1325美元的目标位。
分析师在最近的评论中建议投资者持有个位数比重的黄金资产，因为目前尽管美元指数出现了上行的势头，但地缘政治风险依旧存在。不少投资经理建议的比重都为2%-10%之间。
分析师称，倾向于在年底和明年初持有少量黄金资产，不建议放弃黄金。实际上黄金在今年的表现十分强劲，年初至今黄金录得11%的涨幅。
分析师认为，今年以来长期债券收益率上升(年初至今升幅9%)，美股录得创纪录的高位，标普500指数年初至今涨幅超过15%，在这样的情况下，黄金能录得如此强劲的表现令人惊讶。金价在投资者几乎没有什么理由以黄金对冲风险的环境中上涨，而市场回调往往幅度温和也很短暂。
而税改可能会支撑美元，美元自一月份的高点下跌9%以后，找到了一些支撑。但同时必须注意到，尽管短期环境对黄金来说并不理想，但仍有一些理由表明，维持有一定的黄金资产是有必要的。其中的原因包括，多元化收益。在大部分高波动性的环境下，黄金能够对冲股市和债市的风险。
分析师称，美债收益率曲线趋平和低迷美元是黄金两大利好。市场买长债而卖短债表明对衰退的担忧更甚于通胀。
尽管近来黄金窄幅振荡让投资者很沮丧，但在股市走高和债市走低的情况下黄金还是很坚挺。宏观经济指标不尽如人意，地缘政治风险在增加，两者都在支撑黄金。此外美联储(FED)不急于加息也有利于黄金，而美联储最新公布的会议纪要也证实了这点。
分析师认为，黄金可能很快迎来反弹，即使未来金价有所下跌，也并不意味着黄金要进入长期的盘整或是下跌周期，反而是市场给投资者的一个极佳入场机会。分析师称，黄金仍有机会在年末达到1325美元/盎司，因通胀持续走弱，地缘政治危机不断，将会推动投资者继续涌入黄金。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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