英镑上演过山车，风向怎么定
上周英镑表现势如破竹，连续五个交易日收涨，最高摸至1.3338，10月16日涨势戛然而止，不过花旗认为本周宜买入，法农和巴克莱也预计将受支撑，仅澳洲国民银行认为英镑愈显难以交易，未来波幅或达5%-10%。
上周英镑表现势如破竹，连续五个交易日收涨，最高摸至1.3338，周一(10月16日)涨势戛然而止，不过花旗银行(Citi)认为本周宜买入，法国农业信贷(Credit Agricole)和巴克莱资本(Barclays)也预计将受支撑，仅澳洲国民银行(NAB)认为英镑愈显难以交易，未来波幅或达5%-10%。
近期美元疲态料持续，做多英镑为诱人选项。由于美国财政及货币政策均处于“hold住”模式，大型买方抛售美元或致其疲态持续。
尽管“英国脱欧”协商可能持续令英镑承压，但本周将公布的英国9月CPI及就业数据或意外乐观，将为汇价提供部分支撑。北京时间周二16:15英国央行货币政策委员会新成员Silvana Tenreyro和David Ramsden将首次出席英国议会财政委员会听证会。18:15英国央行行长卡尼将向英国议会财政委员会作证词，为6月英国大选以来，卡尼首次出席，可能会受到经济和利率前景的拷问。
英国9月CPI年率料上涨3.0%，前值上涨2.9%，该数据的任何意外上行或推动英镑续涨，因市场计价显示，11月利率决议后，英国央行的加息路径将较为陡峭，英银11月加息几率高达约85%。
若英国通胀表现较为疲软，或就业市场显著恶化，可能弱化英国央行加息预期对英镑的支撑。英国截至8月包括红利三个月平均工资年率料上涨2.1%，前值上涨2.1%；截至8月三个月ILO失业率料仍为4.3%，前值4.3%。
近期英镑变得越来越难以交易，因英国不稳定的政局及表现好坏不一的经济数据导致汇价大幅波动，在这种环境下，未来英镑波幅或达5%-10%。
英镑的过山车行情由两方面因素导致。一方面，消息称英国可能又要再度举行大选，或致英镑大跌；另一方面，若欧盟与英国达成为期两年的过渡性协议，或提振英镑上涨5%-7.5%，且未来三年半时间内交易环境料不变。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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