美联储缩表计划开始，拯救市场
美联储本周三料将宣布启动缩减4.5万亿美元资产组合的计划，成为结束危机时代举措的又一里程碑。这些资产多数是为了应对2007-2009年金融危机而买进的。如果美联储主席耶伦能推行其想法，缩表很可能在10月开始，届时以往调整政策时波动巨大的金融市场却可能波澜不惊。
美联储的计划是逐步停止购买债券，数年后将资产负债规模降至3万亿美元，决策者和经济分析师估计美联储资产负债将会稳定在这个水平上下。2008年中时美联储持有资产约9000亿美元，当时还没有开始购债以刺激招聘和经济增长。
费城联储主席哈克称，多年的计划和几个月来小心翼翼地向公众传递信息，应会使得资产缩减过程像“看着油漆变干”一样枯燥乏味。根据路透对近100名分析师的调查结果，美联储在9月19-20日的政策会议上料维持利率不变，市场目前预计12月会议升息的机率为52%。
鉴于美国经济增速足以让失业率维持在远低于衰退高峰时期一半的水平，美联储很可能成为第一家开始从2008年危机后紧急措施最后阶段撤离的主要央行。在耶伦的领导下，美联储已经将利率从近零水准上调了四次，并停止累积资产。下一阶段不是出售所持资产，而是停止到期债券收回资金的再投资。
美联储的缩表进程在一开始时，最初缩减的证券再投资规模每月将不超过100亿美元，然后在一年内上限逐季调高，直至达到每月500亿美元。分析师预测，这样的进程应可在第一年使债券持仓削减近3千亿美元、第二年达到近5千亿美元。但一大未知问题在于美联储将如何处理剩余的月度购债额度？是将其平均分配至各天期债券？还是将以购置短天期资产为主来加快缩表进程？这将影响到长券收益率在美联储退场时能涨到多高。另一个不确定因素则是联储削减抵押支持债券持仓的速度，这在一定程度上要取决于房主的再融资决策。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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