英国经济能否绝地反击
FX168财经报社(香港)讯 瑞士银行业巨头瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）周三（7月20日）发布报告警告称，英国可能在六个月之内经济开始收缩。
分析师认为，尽管经济衰退的可能性不大，但英国仍有38%的几率陷入技术性衰退。今年一季度英国经济仅增长0.2%，而目前对于二季度的预期也与这一水平相近。
这是一个危险的信号。“季度增长仅保持微弱的涨势，这令技术性衰退的可能性升高，动荡的政治背景和难以捉摸的退欧谈判增加了我们预测的不确定性。”
所谓技术性衰退是指GDP连续两个季度负增长。比如，英国GDP在今年三、四季度涨幅均收缩0.1%，就将被视为技术性衰退。
退欧公投后，大部分经济学家都预言英国经济将陷入危机。但英国经济在去年表现出的强劲弹性却令这些业界权威被纷纷“打脸”。
分析师在此次发布的报告中写道：“我们曾在去年退欧公投后预测过英国经济衰退，但实际并未发生，好于预期的消费者支出强力支撑了经济，但这是以存储率的大幅下跌为代价。”
围绕着经济的许多负面因素尚存，这令英国经济仍处于衰退的风险之中。“在退欧公投后预期经济衰退的因素仍缠绕着英国经济，且过去数月以来基本面更加趋弱。我们预期退欧公投后企业因不确定性停止投资，消费者支出在英镑贬值导致的高通胀下收缩，虽然发生的时间延迟，但这些目前都已成为事实，而伴随着大选后的政治不确定性和退欧谈判的开始情况可能恶化。”
“因此，经济衰退的几率超过三成。根据几个模型的预估，未来六个月内英国发生经济衰退的几率为25%－38%。若英国央行在今年内升息，几率将会更大。如果升息0.25%，经济衰退的可能性就将上升5%。”
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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