脱欧谈判有转机，英镑迎来曙光？
英国“脱欧”谈判于6月19日如期正式启动，尽管谈判首日英国就做出了让步，但三菱日联仍预计有望达成有利的过渡协议，英镑跌势料受限，丹斯克银行则认为，谈判期间英镑料被低估，欧元兑英镑或交投于0.87附近。
“英国脱欧”谈判前景乐观，可能迈向有利的过渡时期，或超过英国“脱欧”谈判的最终期限2019年3月29日。
对英国和欧盟双方而言，缩短谈判截止日期对双方都有利，迅速转向达成过渡协议将意味着，英国将在更长期内保留欧盟单一市场地位，“真正的脱欧协商”可能在2018年一季度或二季度进行。
出于这个原因考虑，英国央行料于2018年2月加息。据FX678观察，自2016年8月降息25个基点并扩大资产购买600亿英镑以来，英国央行持续按兵不动。
当前英镑跌势料受限，因“英国脱欧”协商可能达成利好的过渡性协议，且英国央行可能在季度通胀报告中指出，利率水平可能需高于当前市场预期。
汇通网指出，伦敦时间周三(6月21日)上午11:30，英国女王伊丽莎白主持了新一届议会的开幕，在演讲中提出了为脱欧做准备的8项法案，将允许废除欧盟移民法，并允许英国在脱欧后独立开展贸易。女王讲话过后，市场风险情绪提升，英镑兑美元扩大涨幅。
在“英国脱欧”谈判期间，英镑料处于被低估状态，不过将对“脱欧”谈判的进展高度敏感。
近期英国国内局势不大可能大幅提振英镑，英国经济增长料放缓，且英国央行将仍按兵不动，直至“脱欧”谈判出现更多、更明确进展。
近期欧元兑英镑料交投于0.84-0.90区间，或交投于0.87附近，此前一到三个月预期为0.84，三到六个月预期为0.83。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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