美元跌个不停，未来走势如何？
虽然黄金已经经历了两周的下跌，但是似乎在6月份逃脱不了下跌的命运，昨日(6月19日)黄金大幅下跌12美元，失守了关键支持位1250水平，截至发稿正跌向1240水平。一旦不能在收盘重新回到1253之上，一场旋风式的暴跌或在所难免。
英国与欧盟的脱欧谈判昨日正式开启，而目前看来，英国有所让步。英国此前希望在脱欧谈判的同时，推进贸易协议的谈判。但目前，英国放弃了对谈判内容先后顺序的要求。这让市场担忧，英国政府此前高估了自己的筹码。英国如果硬脱欧，英国经济受到的影响将大于欧盟，这或许让欧盟处在了更有利的谈判位置。
美国纽约联储主席、美联储三号人物杜德利昨日讲话中称，现在暂停紧缩周期将伤害经济，美国的加息周期“目前为止一切顺利”。
此前一向采取鸽派论调的杜德利，今日讲话中称赞美联储通过一系列加息来使货币政策正常化的举措是“如此之好”。他还表示，现在暂停紧缩周期将危及经济扩张，对于杜德利本人来说这样的措辞极为罕见。
周二(6月20日)美联储另一位票委芝加哥联储主席查尔斯·埃文斯(Charles Evans)一方面强调了当前通胀依然低迷，另一方面也表达了对经济前景的乐观看法。他认为，美联储应该缓慢升息。值得注意的是，尽管埃文斯对通货膨胀率过低发出警告，但上周美联储以8比1的结果通过加息25基点的决议，埃文斯投了赞成加息的票。
预计黄金在连跌两周之后，本周可能也难出现较明显的改观。盘中可能会出现一定程度上的空头回补，但后市选择下行的可能性依然较大。谨慎的投资者可以观望，激进的投资者可以择机在反弹至1250附近选择逢高空。
当然，在黄金空头弥漫的情况下，空头也可能选择直接进攻，毫不留余地，顺势攻下1240美元/盎司水平。不过，一旦空头选择顺势进攻，黄金市场旋风式的暴跌将在所难免。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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